Yes, we have heard of the increasing number of new cases. It is true that the state peak in new cases was on June 10, 2020, but those numbers have been decreasing since then, on the average. It is also true that the new case numbers peaked in Collin County on June 9, 2020, but those numbers still are relatively low considering the population of the county. However, the new case numbers in Dallas County peaked on May 22, 2020, and these numbers are rising again. This is a concern.
With all that, the new case numbers are complex. The average number of state viral tests performed in June is up 50% from the month of May. Further, the positive test results are going up at half that rate, at 7% in June, which is still below the 10% threshold that the CDC favors.
We must recall that the rationale for mitigation in the first place was not to prevent new cases, but it was to prevent the overrunning of hospitals. So, hospitalizations is a better indicator than new case numbers.
In the state, 27% of the hospital beds are available, 1675 ICU beds are available, and 5869 ventilators are available. In north central Texas, 5.3% of the hospital beds are occupied by COVID-19 patients, 24% of the hospital beds are available, and 525 ICU beds are available. Then, in Dallas County, ICU admissions and hospitalizations have been flat for weeks, with the peak occurring on April 18, 2020. In Collin County, the hospitalization numbers are low, and currently at 112, which is a peak. With this, the hospitals are not being overrun. So, increased community mitigation does not seem warranted, based on its original intent.
In considering the peaks of the number of deaths, in Texas this occurred on May 14, 2020, in Dallas County this occurred on June 3, 2020, and in Collin County this occurred on June 9, 2020. These death numbers have been decreasing in Texas and in Dallas County. The daily death numbers in Collin County have been bouncing between none and three; with the daily numbers being so low, it is not very fair to consider spikes.
Now for the usual numbers we have been tracking:
Texas 1.5 million Dallas Cty 126,600 Collin Cty 33,900
Texas 28,000 Dallas Cty 4582 Collin Cty 318 Plano 152
Texas 89,100 Dallas Cty 14,232 Collin Cty 1667 Plano 568
Texas 59,100 Dallas Cty 9065 Collin Cty 1292 Plano 406
Texas 1983 Dallas Cty 284 Collin Cty 37 Plano 10
Percentage of State Positive Viral Tests, Monthly Averages
April 9.5% May 5.5% June 7%
If you are interested in seeing the result of hours of solid, cited research from reputable sources, we invite you to see Dr. V’s postings: