Novel Coronavirus: Update of July 20, 2020

Coronavirus, Corona virus, COVID, Venincasa Dental
Novel Coronavirus; COVID-19

The countries with over one hundred thousand new cases in the past seven days include the United States, Brazil, and India (WHO, “Situation Report 182). The regions with notable viral spread include the Pan American, Southeast Asian, South African, and the Western Pacific regions (WHO).

Globally, the peak in new daily viral case infections is currently now. Globally as well, the peak in the number of daily fatalities occurred on April 17, 2020, and this curve has been relatively flat since May 10, 2020 (WHO). The Regions of the Americas, Southeast Asia, and Africa may be currently experiencing their peaks in daily new infection cases (WHO).

Concerning fatalities globally, Brazil, Mexico, India, Iran, Russia, and Peru have increasing daily fatality number curves (WHO). Comparatively, the United States had its peak in daily fatalities on April 16, 2020; the weekly fatalities have been significantly lower and flatter since May 25, 2020 (WHO).

I will now present the more local statistics. The statistics of the state and counties are from the Texas Department of State Health Services website. Those of the city of Plano, Texas come from the City of Plano website.

Date of New Daily Peak in Infection Cases: Texas 07-15-2020, Dallas Cty 07-07-2020, Collin Cty July 11, 2020, Plano 07-10-2020. These numbers in Texas and in Collin County have been going down significantly since their peaks. These numbers in Dallas County are a bit lower since its peak. The state viral test positivity rate peaked on July 16, 2020, at 17.4%. It has been decreasing since, and is currently at 14.7%. The CDC has been very clear all along that this number needs to be below 10%.

Date of Peak in Daily Fatalities: Texas 07-17-2020, Dallas Cty 07-15-2020, Collin Cty 07-15-2020 (only 3, so a “peak” is somewhat meaningless). The fatality curves have been going down in Texas and in Dallas County since their peaks, especially in Dallas County.

Infections Cases Per 1000 Residents: Texas 11, Dallas County 15, Collin County 5.

Viral Testing in the State of Texas: Over 223,000 antibody tests have been performed, with about 8000 positive test results. With this, 3.6% of those tested do have antibodies to COVID-19. Over 3.2 million state viral tests have been performed, with about 332.000 positive test results. With this, 10% of the tested cases had a positive result.

Cumulative Viral Tests Performed by Month: Texas in April 330,000, May 253,000 (?), June 506,000, by July 17, 769,000. Dallas County in April 29,000, May 88,000, June 185,000, by July 17, 291,000. Collin County in April 8000, May 24,000, June 46,000, by July 17, 69,000. So, Since April, monthly testing numbers in Dallas County and in Collin County have more than tripled, which has a drastic effect on the number of new cases found.

Cumulative Recoveries: Texas 178,000, Dallas County 22,000, Collin County 4400, Plano 1251.

Current Active Infection Case Numbers: Texas 151,000, Dallas County 17,000, Collin County 833, Plano 205.

As in the past, 40% of state fatalities have been in those over 80 years old. and 73% of state fatalities have been in those over 65 years old.

Now for the all important hospitalization numbers. In the state, the peak in the number of hospital beds used is now. In the state, there are still 20% of available hospital beds (this was 27% one month ago), so the state is not over-run currently. As we recall, the purpose of mitigation in the first place was to prevent the over-running of hospitals. In the state, 1004 ICU beds are available (this was 1675 one month ago), and 5058 ventilators are available (this was 5869 one month ago).

As far as hospitalizations in the north central Texas area, again, 20% of all hospital beds are available (this was 24% one month ago), 333 ICU beds are available, 1221 ventilators are available, and there are 1910 COVID-19 patients in the hospitals. In the past ten days, 25% more ICU beds are available, and almost 10% more ventilators are available, so the curve is trending down for ICU bed and ventilator utilization in north central Texas!

We have got to keep all these trends going down. Our peaks may peak out at this time. This all depends on us; every single one of us. It is not the President, our governors, our county judges, nor our mayors who are to blame for our viral spread. The buck stops with each one of us, as the CDC has advised us all along.

We have got to maintain our social distancing, to wear cloth masks when social distancing is more difficult over time, to wash our hands many times daily, to stay home when we are not feeling well, and to self-quarantine if we have had “significant contact” with someone who has tested positive to the virus. PLEASE DO NOT TOUCH YOUR FACE. These recommendations have been solid for several months. We have got to keep this going to keep the trends going downward. We can do this!

May we rely on our foundational sources for strength: facts, logic, and faith!

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